I was having some friends over for New Year’s Eve and some of them were saying how they and their friends who regularly go to the gym hate the new year because the gym is crowded the first couple weeks of the new year thanks to the ever popular resolution of exercising more. Then as motivation dwindles, the gym reverts back to normal the rest of the year.

However, I just saw a local news story about how the gyms aren’t as busy as expected the first days of 2009 and talking to someone who went to the gym today, he thought it wasn’t as crowded as expected, just a normal Saturday.

Just like the tanking of the stock market, gym memberships and plastic surgery have taken a hit:

“Gym memberships, which average $35 per month, fell last year [2007] for the first time in more than a decade to 41.5 million from 42.7 million in 2006.”
—International Health Racquet & Sportsclub Association

So with the decline in memberships because people have already cut the gym as a luxury, even with the surge effects of hopeful resolutions in January, the gym doesn’t look as crowded as previous Januarys.

Also, most people overspend on the gym according to a UC Berkeley and Stanford study of three US health clubs in New England with about 8000 members over a three year period (also referred to in the NY Times):

“Members who choose a contract with a flat monthly fee of over $70 attend on average 4.8 times per month. They pay a price per expected visit of more than $17, even though a $10-per-visit fee is also available. On average, these users forgo savings of $700 during their membership [of $1,500 in costs].”

“…health club users overestimate their future usage by more than 100% percent.”

Gyms make their profit by expecting a drop-out rate (just like most subscription models) which happens around 30 days and slows down at 90 days with about a 20-30% average drop-out rate. For most, it’s actually better to pay as you go. Ramit with iwillteachyoutoberich.com calls it the A La Carte Method.

Check out the annual free National Body Challenge which comes with a 30-day Bally Fitness trial membership (though Bally filed for bankruptcy last month). Costco also has a 24 hour fitness 2 year membership deal for those who are ready to be a gym rat… or at least believe they are ready.